As the days grow shorter and the weather turns colder, the Ukraine-Russia war enters its third winter, with both sides enduring heavy casualties. Amid rising global uncertainty—driven by the upcoming U.S. election and escalating tensions in the Middle East—the West is recalibrating its objectives. The prospect of total victory seems distant, and the pressure on Ukraine to reach a settlement continues to grow.
The proposed deal reportedly allows Russia to retain control over four Russian-speaking territories, while Ukraine would be granted NATO membership in exchange.
This news stirs many reflections. First, while the war is fought between Ukraine and Russia, one must question how much control Ukraine truly has over its own fate. Its future seems to lie in the hands of outside powers, which is both tragic and disheartening.
Second, the notion that Ukraine's NATO membership will ensure lasting peace seems dangerously naïve. The belief that U.S. and Western allies can guarantee Ukraine’s security overlooks a harsh reality: Ukraine remains a small neighbor to Russia, caught in the geopolitical tug-of-war between two global powers.
Lastly, European history shows that peace is often merely a pause in the ongoing cycle of conflict. The Peace of Westphalia (1648), celebrated for ending the Thirty Years' War and the Eighty Years' War, was meant to usher in a new era of stability. Yet just forty years later, Europe found itself in the Nine Years' War (1688-1697), followed by the War of Spanish Succession (1701-1714), the War of Austrian Succession (1740), the Seven Years' War (1756-1763), the Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815), the Franco-Prussian War (1870-1871), World War I, World War II, and beyond. From Korea to Vietnam, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Gulf War, Iraq, Afghanistan—war has remained a constant, with peace treaties serving only as brief intermissions.
A Chinese saying goes, 东山再起 (dōng shān zài qǐ), which literally means "to rise again from Mount Dongshan." Figuratively, it speaks to the idea of making a comeback after defeat or setback.
As Europe's history has shown, peace is often fleeting, a pause before the next chapter of war. NATO membership may strengthen Ukraine’s position, but it will not erase its proximity to Russia or its vulnerability as a pawn between great powers. The future may well hold another resurgence of tensions, much like the countless wars that have scarred and plagued Europe for thousands of years.
As the Chinese saying goes, to rise again after a setback, will Ukraine, emboldened by NATO’s backing, initiate its own resurgence of conflict with Russia? Only time will tell if this so-called peace is truly the end or merely the beginning of another cycle.