On Sept 29, I wrote a piece on the book The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman (2009).
George Friedman’s 2009 prediction about China in 2020 offers three potential paths, which is an interesting reflection, especially now that it’s 2024 and many of his forecasts did not materialize as expected. He presented three paths for China: (1) perpetual growth, (2) recentralization, (3) fragmentation along regional lines. He think the third one is the most likely outcome.
"A third possibility is that under the stress of an economic downturn, China fragments along traditional regional lines, while the central government weakens and becomes less powerful. Traditionally, this is a more plausible scenario in China--and one that will benefit the wealthier classes as well as foreign investors. It will leave China in the position it was in prior to Mao, with regional competition and perhaps even conflict and a central government struggling to maintain control. If we accept the fact that China's economy will have to undergo a readjustment at some point, and that this will generate serious tension, as it would in any country, then this third outcome fits most closely with reality and with Chinese history." Pp. 98-99
Friedman correctly anticipated the slowdown of China's astronomical growth rates. However, the slow growth has not resulted in the catastrophic economic collapse or fragmentation of the country that Friedman predicted.
Instead, the Chinese government has managed this slowdown through many measures like stimulating domestic consumption, innovation, and initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative 2013 (BRI), which has vast extended China's economic influence globally.
Friedman suggests that an economic slowdown would lead to fragmentation, with the central government unable to maintain control due to conflicting interests within its ranks. He believed recentralization was nearly impossible, especially with internal factions opposing it.
However, instead of weakening, China’s central government has consolidated power, particularly through the anti-corruption campaign initiated in 2012, which helped curb internal conflicts, and Poverty Elimination campaign in 2012, These efforts, reinforced central authority and allowed China to navigate these challenges more effectively and peacefully.
Friedman’s main argument is that China’s unity hinges on economic growth, but he significantly underestimated the collective desire for national unity.
His 2009 prediction has missed key initiatives like anti-corruption, poverty eradication, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The most critical factor that he failed to see is the deeply ingrained wish of the Chinese people for peace, unity and sovereignty. Historically, they have resisted foreign domination and fragmentation. It’s not merely one-person's leadership but the shared national consciousness that sustains China’s stability, especially in light of current wars in other parts of the world.
A Chinese saying for Friedman’s failed prediction, "坐井观天" (zuò jǐng guān tiān), means "sitting in a well and viewing the sky." It implies having a limited or narrow perspective, akin to Friedman's underestimation of China's resilience and capacity for self-correction. His prediction was based on a narrow understanding of China's dynamics, overlooking its historical continuity and the collective will for unity, much like the frog at the bottom of the well seeing only a small part of the sky.
In hindsight, Friedman underestimated China's capacity for recentralization and overestimated the likelihood of fragmentation. As a result, he failed to see China's ability for self-correction, demonstrated by initiatives like anti-corruption and poverty eradication.
While China still faces significant challenges, its 2024 situation is far more stable and optimistic than Friedman predicted. As China just celebrated the 75th anniversary of its independence on October the first, his analysis serves as a reminder that the complexities of a country with China's long history and culture often defy straightforward forecasts.