Less than a month before Election Day, November 5, someone remarked that "the die is cast and fate is sealed"—unless a 黑天鹅事件 (hēi tiān’é shìjiàn) or Black Swan Event, occurs. A Black Swan Event refers to an unpredictable, high-impact event that defies normal expectations.
The mention of elections and a Black Swan Event brings to mind the Iran hostage crisis (November 4, 1979 – January 20, 1981) and the 1980 presidential debate between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter. I was in college at the time, and I still vividly recall both events, particularly the disappointment and a sense of injustice I felt when Carter lost the election.
Following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, President Jimmy Carter stood by the ousted Shah of Iran, granting him entry into the U.S. for medical treatment. This decision inflamed anti-American sentiment in Iran and culminated in the hostage crisis.
While the crisis itself may not qualify as a Black Swan Event, the timing of the hostages' release certainly does. Their release, which coincided precisely with Reagan's inauguration, 1/20/1981, seemed almost too well-orchestrated. Even from the other side of the Pacific, in Beijing, I couldn't help but suspect that there was some behind-the-scenes deal between Iran and Reagan's campaign to ensure the hostages were freed at just the right moment.
Additionally, the hostage crisis had a major negative impact on Carter’s presidency and re-election bid, and the immediate resolution under Reagan’s administration appeared to highlight a dramatic contrast between the two leaders.
The whole event felt as though the lives of those hostages had been leveraged for political gain, which is unsettling.
Later, I came across the "October Surprise" theory, which suggests that Reagan’s team, possibly led by campaign manager William Casey (who later became CIA director), secretly negotiated with Iranian officials to delay the release of the hostages in order to defeat Carter’s re-election bid. Although no definitive evidence of such a deal has ever surfaced, the suspicion lingers, especially involving the work of CIA.
The Iran hostage crisis, whether by coincidence or clandestine dealings, had a profound impact on the outcome of the 1980 election. It remains a potent reminder of how unpredictable events can reshape the political landscape. The idea that lives could be strategically leveraged for electoral victory is disturbing, and while as with most of secret dealings the truth behind the "October Surprise" may never fully emerge, the lingering suspicion will persist, serving as a reminder of the murky intersections between power and human lives.
It leaves us pondering how much of history is shaped by the hidden currents beneath them. The hostage crisis wasn’t just a geopolitical issue; it was a test of morality, trust, and the unpredictable forces that often define our world today.