7/15/2026
On July 13, 2026, Harici published an article reporting on an EY-Parthenon study of the costs of reducing Western dependence on China across strategic supply chains.
The study, originally reported by the Financial Times, estimates that reducing reliance on China could cost the United States, the eurozone, and the United Kingdom more than $23 trillion over the next quarter century.
Upon reading it, three questions came to my mind.
The first question is: Is it technically possible?
Almost certainly yes. There is no economic law that says manufacturing ecosystems cannot be built elsewhere.
The second question is: Is it economically expensive?
Again, yes, very much so. The study's estimate of $23.6 trillion illustrates just how costly such a transformation could be. Building factories is only part of the challenge. Entire industrial ecosystems—including suppliers, logistics, infrastructure, skilled workers, and refining capacity—take decades and more to develop.
The third question is: Is there sufficient political will?
That's a trillion dollar question. Democracies tend to struggle with long time horizons. The costs are immediate and visible—higher public spending, higher prices, and difficult budget choices—while the benefits, such as economic independence, may not become apparent for years or even decades.
History offers many examples in which what once seemed impossible became possible through sustained political will and collective efforts. One example is modern China.
Before 1949, China was burdened by the "Three Mountains"—imperialism, feudalism, and bureaucratic capitalism. Overcoming these forces appeared an overwhelming task at the time. Yet history shows that objectives once considered unattainable can become achievable when there is sufficient determination, organization, and persistence.
Very often, the limiting factor is not capability but determination. Individuals, organizations, and nations frequently possess the resources and knowledge to achieve difficult goals.
Like the book review that I did a few days ago on Why Was the PLA Able to Win? by Xu Yan. It's the same question asked again and again, why do some people and institutions successfully pursue long-term goals while others do not?
What ultimately determines success is whether they have the vision, the determination, the discipline, and the political will to sustain the effort over many years and decades.
A reader commented, “ 还有一个因素，现在的西方政客更像职业经理人，而不是政治家，很难制定超过任期的蓝图，更难保证不人走茶凉。” Make sense.