12/18/2024
Last Thursday, December 12, I came across a CNN report about President-elect Donald Trump extending an invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration ceremony. My initial reaction mirrored the disbelief I felt upon hearing about South Korea’s martial law: This can’t be true. It must be fake news.
To verify, I checked other reputable outlets—AP, The Guardian, CBS—and found the same story. The report caused quite a stir globally.
After the initial shock wore off, I started to make sense of it. Once it sank in, it became clear that this bold and unconventional act was quintessential Trump. His style has always been defined by unpredictability, norm-breaking diplomacy, theatrical gestures, and headline-seeking moves. This invitation aligns with his penchant for personal diplomacy and his desire to redefine U.S.-China relations on his own terms.
The invitation itself has sparked a range of interpretations. I believe there could be some positive implications:
1. A Signal of Engagement Over Confrontation The invitation suggests Trump’s willingness to prioritize engagement with China rather than confrontation. It hints at his desire to reset, from day one, the often-contentious U.S.-China relationship and pursue closer ties.
2. A Pragmatic Shift in Tone The gesture stands in stark contrast to Trump’s earlier campaign rhetoric, which emphasized being tough on China through tariffs and addressing trade imbalances. This pragmatic move may signal a more flexible approach to future dealings.
3. Symbolism Over Seriousness Given the unconventional nature of the gesture, the invitation seems more symbolic than a real expectation for Xi’s attendance. This flexibility allows Xi to decline without risking offense or diplomatic fallout.
4. A Glimpse of Trump’s Personal Diplomacy Trump values direct engagement with world leaders, often bypassing traditional institutional channels to create high-profile, personal relationships. This invitation sets the tone for what the world might expect from his approach to foreign leaders.
A Chinese saying goes, "礼尚往来" (Lǐ shàng wǎng lái), meaning, "Courtesy demands reciprocity." This saying emphasizes the cultural and diplomatic principle of making gestures of goodwill in the hopes of fostering mutual respect and exchange. It aligns with the spirit of Trump’s invitation as an overture to reset the frosty relations, even if it means breaking traditional norms.
However, while the invitation is bold and unconventional, it’s unlikely to gain traction with a leader like Xi Jinping. Here’s why:
First, Chinese diplomacy prioritizes convention, discipline, and respect for established norms. A domestic event like a U.S. presidential inauguration falls outside the traditional parameters of international diplomacy.
Second, Trump’s unpredictability can be a liability. World leaders, including Xi, often avoid high-stakes, unpredictable situations. Trump’s penchant for sudden shifts and headline-making gestures may be viewed as a risk rather than an opportunity.
Third, the two leaders have vastly different leadership styles. Trump’s bold, short-term, and attention-driven diplomacy contrasts sharply with Xi’s disciplined, long-term, and risk-averse approach. The lack of alignment in styles further diminishes the likelihood of Xi entertaining the invitation.
Ultimately, while Trump’s invitation may be more symbolic than practical, it speaks volumes about his intentions and his willingness to break with tradition. Even if Xi declines, the gesture signals that Trump’s presidency will likely feature dramatic, unconventional diplomacy aimed at shaking up the established order. Whether such moves prove effective remains to be seen, but globally, all eyes and ears are on it.