A friend of mine recently asked, "How do you find time to write every day?" Honestly, writing itself isn’t the hard part—focusing is. There’s always so much to read, write about, and finish, with countless loose ends demanding attention. Without focus, I could easily let go hours without going anywhere.
Now, shifting to today’s topic: last Friday, I came across a report about tech stock sell-offs and the cooling enthusiasm following Trump's election win. The article noted that “half of the stock market’s euphoric post-Trump-election gains have vanished.” To me, this development is hardly surprising. If anything, it highlights two defining characteristics of a Trump administration: uncertainty and unpredictability.
On the surface, Trump is branded as a pro-capitalist leader, championing tax cuts, deregulation, expanding oil drilling, a withdrawal from climate agreements, and a resurgence of laissez-faire policies. However, beneath these promises lies a storm of concerns about long-term stability, policy implementation, and broader economic consequences.
Here are four key challenges that highlight the uncertainty:
1. Tariffs and Trade Wars The biggest elephant in the room is Trump’s tariff policy. Will we see a resurgence of trade wars? Heightened geopolitical tensions, alienation from allies, and disruptions to global trade and production loom as real possibilities.
2. Leadership Instability Many still recall the chaos of Trump’s first administration—frequent staff turnover, internal infighting, and cabinet appointments often driven by loyalty or campaign donations rather than qualifications. These patterns raise concerns about governance competence and undermine confidence in long-term leadership stability. A Chinese saying can well describe Trump here, 任人唯亲 (rèn rén wéi qīn) "Appointing people based on favoritism" or "Nepotism." It refers to a practice where individuals are chosen for positions based on personal relationships or loyalty rather than merit or qualifications.
3. Fiscal Responsibility While proposed tax cuts might boost short-term profits, they also risk ballooning the national deficit if tariff revenues fail to deliver as expected. This could present a significant long-term economic challenge, one that investors and analysts are already wary of.
4. Diplomatic Unpredictability Trump’s unconventional approach to diplomacy—like the 2018 meeting with Kim Jong Un—raises questions about what surprises might lie ahead. Will his next move destabilize international relations, or will it redefine diplomacy in ways no one anticipates?
Ultimately, while Trump’s pro-capitalist proclamations have initially captured attention, the challenge lies in translating them into effective policies and executables. The potential for unprecedented global repercussions, coupled with governance and stability concerns, fuels an environment of caution. Investors, policymakers, and the public are left imagining a landscape dominated by uncertainty—a hallmark of the Trump administration.