Yanwen’s blog

Saturday, February 15, 2025

My sister and her husband often drive their son to work in the morning, mainly due to unfavorable weather. He’s turning 27 this year, and some might see this as overprotectiveness—especially since he could ride his e-bike or take public transportation. But I see it differently. As retired parents, they treasure these ride moments with their son. It reminds me of when my children come over for lunch and we drive them back—not out of necessity, but simply to extend our time together, savoring those fleeting moments.

Recently, I came across a timely news piece about a major trend shaping China’s e-commerce landscape—livestream shopping. It’s no surprise that marketing guru Gary Vaynerchuk calls it the next big thing, and China is already at the forefront of this revolution.

The numbers are staggering: over half a billion consumers regularly tune into e-commerce livestreams, driving a significant share of China’s online retail sales. I see my relatives shopping this way all the time.

Livestream shopping work so well for these reasons. 

1. Real-time product demos build trust – Seeing a product in action reassures buyers and enhances credibility.  

2. Flash sales and limited-time deals tap into FOMO (fear of missing out) – A classic sales tactic that keeps audiences hooked. Hurry up—过这个村就没这个店! (guò zhège cūn jiù méi zhège diàn) "Once you pass this village, there’s no more shop like this." The saying conveys a sense of urgency, implying that once the opportunity (such as a flash sale) is gone, it's gone for good.

3. Instant engagement fosters a direct connection – The interactive format strengthens consumer trust and boosts conversion rates. 

Some livestreamers sell millions in minutes, proving just how powerful this sales model has become. Brands that ignore it risk falling behind, especially as platforms like Douyin (TikTok’s Chinese counterpart), Taobao Live, and Kuaishou continue to shape consumer behavior.

Livestream shopping is an emerging trend, blending entertainment, social engagement, and retail into a seamless experience. With China leading the way, this trend has already begun to influence global markets, and its potential is far from fully realized. As consumer habits continue to evolve, staying ahead of the curve will be crucial for those who want to capture the attention—and wallets—of today’s digital shoppers.

Friday, February 14, 2025

Lately, I’ve found myself binge-watching short video clips and still thinking about them long after I’ve stopped watching. A friend once told me, “It’s so easy to lose an hour on short videos.” While she lamented the wasted time, I see it from another perspective: You are what you eat. You think what you see. The indulgence in low-quality information leaves a lasting imprint on our minds.

Just as the food we consume shapes our physical health, the information we absorb influences our thoughts and perspectives. If you spend hours on mindless short videos, your brain continues to process them even after you’ve turned off the screen. The effect is immersive—these videos don’t just vanish; they linger, subtly shaping how you perceive the world.

I can't think of a better Chinese saying than this one, 近朱者赤，近墨者黑 (Jìn zhū zhě chì, jìn mò zhě hēi), meaning, One who nears vermilion becomes red; one who nears ink becomes black," suggesting our environment and influences shape who we are—just as the food we eat nourishes the body, the information we consume nourishes the mind.

For those seeking self-improvement, being selective about the information we consume is crucial. In today’s digital landscape, what is truly valuable is often not popular, and what is popular is rarely valuable. Likewise, what is new is not always important, and what is important is often not new.

On a different note,  China’s BYD is in advanced talks to form a carbon credit pool in Europe, according to Reuters. A carbon credit is a permit allowing companies to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. Firms that produce fewer emissions than their cap can sell excess credits to those exceeding their limits, creating a market-based system to curb pollution.

BYD’s move highlights several key trends in the global EV market and Europe’s evolving regulatory landscape:

1. BYD’s Growing Influence in the Global EV Market   BYD’s ability to supply carbon credits underscores its leadership in the EV sector. Unlike legacy European automakers still struggling with electrification, BYD’s high sales volumes allow it to generate surplus credits—turning regulatory pressure into a business opportunity.

2. A Strategic Entry into the European Market   Rather than simply selling EVs, BYD is embedding itself deeper into Europe’s automotive ecosystem. By forming carbon credit pools with European manufacturers, it strengthens business ties with competitors, potentially paving the way for future collaborations or supply chain integration.

3. Regulatory Loopholes and the Cost of Compliance   The EU’s carbon credit system is designed to accelerate electrification, yet it also allows traditional automakers to delay their EV transition by purchasing credits instead of fully committing to change. While this helps legacy companies stay financially stable, it raises concerns about whether the policy is genuinely driving progress or just postponing it.

4. China’s Growing Dominance in EV Technology   This development reinforces how Chinese EV makers—especially BYD—are not just catching up but actively reshaping the industry. While European automakers rely on regulatory workarounds, Chinese firms are already operating ahead of emissions targets, signaling a faster-than-expected shift in global automotive power.

Ultimately, BYD’s approach mirrors Tesla’s early strategy of selling credits to traditional automakers, but with an added strategic twist—strengthening its foothold in Europe while profiting from its EV dominance. European manufacturers now face a choice: accelerate electrification or keep paying their Chinese competitors for compliance.

Thursday, February 13, 2025

My sister and I recently went for a haircut at a small shop run by a middle-aged woman from Dōngběi (东北)—Northeast China. In the course of our conversation, I learned that she operates not just a salon but also a grocery store and a small eatery, all within the same space. Her hardworking and entrepreneurial spirit impressed me deeply.

She comes from a region now home to one of the world’s most spectacular winter attractions—the Harbin Ice and Snow Festival. This year marked the 35th annual Harbin International Ice and Snow Festival, a two-month-long event that has grown into the largest of its kind in the world.

Beyond its breathtaking ice sculptures and winter sports, the festival highlights two major trends shaping modern China: the rise of experience-based tourism and the dominance of KOL-driven digital marketing.

Harbin Ice and Snow World: A Symbol of China’s Thriving Tourism Industry — More than just a theme park, Harbin Ice and Snow World represents China’s booming tourism sector, blending entertainment, cultural heritage, and economic opportunity. Its ability to attract massive crowds—despite steep ticket prices, especially for VIP access—reflects the strong demand for unique, immersive experiences.

KOLs: The New Marketing Powerhouses—In China's hyper-competitive digital landscape, Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) have become a driving force in video marketing. Far more than influencers, they shape consumer behavior in ways that traditional advertising cannot.

Brands overuse KOLs for a simple reason: they work. KOLs craft content that captures attention, creates emotional connections, and generates buzz through storytelling, controversy, and interactive engagement. They excel at hooking an audience instantly, making their videos feel more personal and trustworthy than corporate messaging.

From Corporate Branding to Social Proof—Chinese consumers—especially younger generations—place far more trust in peer recommendations than in traditional brand advertisements. KOLs tap into this by showcasing real-time experiences, interacting directly with their audience, and leveraging psychological triggers like FOMO (fear of missing out) and social validation.

Livestream shopping and short-form videos on platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and Weibo make products and experiences feel tangible, further strengthening consumer confidence.

The Future of Marketing: Speed, Engagement, and Authenticity— The Harbin Ice and Snow Festival’s overwhelming success—bolstered by KOL-driven marketing—illustrates the shifting landscape of consumer behavior in China. The future belongs to brands and individuals who can create fast-paced, engaging, and interactive content. 

Finally, whether in tourism, business, e-commerce, or lifestyle, trust and relatability now drive business far more than traditional advertising ever could do.

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Last Sunday, my young relative’s girlfriend visited my sister's place. My two sisters' apartments are next to my mother’s—one on the fourth floor, two on the third. She also came to our apartment to wish us a Happy Spring Festival and brought a red packet for my mother. She had just returned from a vacation with her parents, which made her visit especially thoughtful. In fact, she was the only one to come over for the festival this year, making her visit feel even more special.

On another positive note, the global clean energy market is seeing a continued decline in costs, accelerating the transition to clean energy.

According to a recent report by research provider BloombergNEF (BNEF), new wind and solar farms are already outcompeting new coal and gas plants in production costs in nearly every global market.

1. Falling Costs of Clean Technologies   The cost of clean power technologies—wind, solar, and battery storage—is expected to drop another 2-11% in 2025, further strengthening their economic advantage. Lower costs are key to accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels and addressing climate change.

2. China’s Leadership in Clean Energy   China remains the dominant force in clean technology manufacturing, particularly in solar panels and batteries. While import tariffs could temporarily slow cost declines, China’s continued leadership and large-scale production capacity ensure it will remain a key player in shaping the future of renewable energy.

3. The Impact of Rising Protectionism    Trade barriers, a trend that intensified during the Trump administration, could temporarily stall price reductions. However, in the long run, clean technologies are expected to keep getting cheaper.

4. Declining Battery Storage Costs    Battery storage costs have fallen significantly, with the benchmark cost for storage projects dropping to $104/MWh in 2024. This decline is crucial for addressing the intermittency of solar and wind power, making renewable energy systems more efficient and scalable.

5. Solar vs. U.S. Gas Plants     Solar power, even without subsidies, is nearing price parity with new gas plants in the U.S., despite the country's relatively low natural gas prices. If the U.S. starts exporting liquefied natural gas, exposing its market to global price competition, solar will become even more competitive.

You can see a clear picture ahead: renewable energy is becoming increasingly viable as a mainstream power source. As the costs of wind, solar, and battery storage continue to fall, adoption will accelerate, leading to a broader transition toward cleaner, more sustainable energy. China remains at the forefront of this industry, driving the global shift toward renewables.

I'd like to end with a Chinese saying, 青山遮不住，毕竟东流去 (Qīng shān zhē bù zhù, bìjìng dōng liú qù), which translates to "The green mountains cannot block it; the river will ultimately flow eastward."  This saying symbolizes unstoppable progress and inevitability of a larger trend —the global shift toward clean energy. Despite temporary setbacks like Trump's protectionism, the momentum toward renewable energy and falling costs is unstoppable, much like a powerful river that will ultimately flow its natural course.

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Last week a friend shared some of his personal reflections with me: "I still believe it's best to focus on doing meaningful work on your own... Those who rush together for self-interest are just trying to ride the wave of trending topics (蹭流量,cèng liú liàng). A few days ago, hundreds of thousands of TikTok refugees suddenly flooded into Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book), instantly gaining tens of thousands of followers. Both sides were thrilled. Some say their excitement comes from the possibility of striking it rich overnight. But how many followers do you need to start making money? It turns out it’s not about truth or falsehood—it's all about the algorithm. Some people spread rumors and nonsense just for business. I’ve learned that this is all about profit. I really admire your perseverance. It’s worth doing as long as you truly enjoy it."

Thanks for the compliment. It’s good to know I’ve been sticking to what I enjoy without trying to chase trends and “蹭流量.” China’s hyper-competitive digital landscape is an interesting story in itself, which I will dwell on more later.

This conversation made me think of Shaun Rein, an American author who wrote The Split: Finding the Opportunities in China's Economy in the New World. He shared an interesting perspective on USAID: “Frankly, the last 5 years have been a struggle for my consulting business. I visited cotton fields and factories in Xinjiang and didn’t find evidence of slave labor or genocide. I guess I could’ve lied and made money from USAID. The amount some NGOs receive is shocking—more than what for-profit consulting firms make per employee. I’m in the wrong business, but I’m on the right side of history. That’s good enough for me."

Speaking of being on the right side of history, Sam Altman who made tons of wealth with his closed OpenAI, discussing the post-DeepSeek OpenAI, said, "I personally think we have been on the wrong side of history here and need to figure out a different open-source strategy..."

We only live once. It’s better to remain poor with a clear conscience than to be wealthy with guilty one. It’s better to be on the right side of history, because history will eventually reveal the truth.

This brings to mind a Chinese saying: "大浪淘沙" (dà làng táo shā), which translates as "The great wave washes away the sand" or "Only the finest survive the test of time." In times of turbulence and challenge, it’s the most enduring qualities that remain, while everything else gets filtered out.