Yanwen’s blog

Election Day has arrived, and with it, a palpable tension felt nationwide and beyond.

Yesterday, we stocked up on groceries, preparing to stay home today and tomorrow. As early as October 17, we began hearing about the potential for post-election unrest in D.C. “The threat of political violence will likely hang over the nation’s capital in the weeks following Election Day,” security experts warn, noting that despite heightened precautions, concerns linger about another incident like January 6.

In the face of such an intensely polarized climate, law enforcement officials are on high alert for possible violent reactions to the election outcome. Prepared measures include increased patrols, enhanced protection for key public figures, and close coordination with local agencies to respond swiftly to any flashpoints.

This caution stems from the possibility of a delayed vote count, especially in a close race. If one candidate seems to lead initially, only to lose as mail-in ballots are counted, some may misinterpret the shift as fraud, leading to heightened tensions.

Meanwhile, retailers and businesses have taken proactive steps to secure their storefronts, bracing against possible vandalism or looting. Although officials aim to avoid escalation, they are prepared to respond to incidents that could stem from charged political rhetoric or online misinformation, which could trigger isolated or “lone wolf” incidents.

In moments like these, a Chinese saying best captures the sense of tension and caution in DC right now: "草木皆兵" (cǎo mù jiē bīng). It means "every tree and bush looks like a hidden enemy soldier." It describes people under extreme tension imagine enemies lurking everywhere, conveying a heightened state of alertness and a readiness to respond to perceived threats—a fitting parallel to the current tense atmosphere around the election.

Zooming out, while tensions simmer locally, the world is collectively holding its breath. America’s election has far-reaching consequences, affecting global markets, trade dynamics, geopolitical alliances, and the stability of key regions like Western Europe and Asia. Depending on the outcome, we could witness everything from escalated trade conflicts to changes in Western European security strategies, especially in war zones.

As leaders across the globe, particularly in Western Europe and Asia, watch closely, it’s clear that changes in American leadership could either ease or intensify global tensions, shifting alliance, markets, especially with key players in Asia.

I recently read an article, Spain Opens Its Doors to China as a European Trade War Looms, which discussed Spain's strategy of opening up to Chinese investment. 

At first, I didn’t find it particularly newsworthy—until a friend mentioned the other day that she had gone shopping at TJ Max and noticed plenty of items still labeled "made in China." She commented that trade between China and the U.S. clearly hasn’t slowed down.

According to the article, Spain is positioning itself as a "connector" country, attracting Chinese investment by staying neutral on European tariffs for electric vehicles. This strategy allows Spain to strengthen its economic ties with China amid rising Western tensions. Similar to Mexico and Vietnam, connector countries provide Chinese firms with indirect access to the U.S. market by helping them bypass import duties.

This emerging approach seems to be part of a broader trend among nonaligned countries like Spain to leverage their neutrality, using their status as trade bridges to attract Chinese investment. Spain’s decision to abstain from the EU vote on tariffs for Chinese electric cars underscores its intent to deepen economic relations with China, despite tensions with the West.

Connector countries have seen rapid growth in Chinese trade and investment, benefiting from job creation, infrastructure projects, and manufacturing expansion. By offering Chinese companies indirect access to the U.S. market, these nations are emerging as key players in global trade, sidestepping tariffs and bolstering their own economies.

However, Spain’s stance, while advantageous to itself, diverges from the EU’s unified policies on China. With the U.S. election approaching, countries like Spain could face increasing pressure in the form of stronger tariffs and trade restrictions. They might encounter repercussions for facilitating trade in ways that sidestep sanctions.

I think of a Chinese verse, "山穷水尽疑无路，柳暗花明又一村"  (shān qióng shuǐ jìn yí wú lù, liǔ àn huā míng yòu yī cūn). This translates roughly to "When the mountains and rivers seem blocking all the way forward, willows and flowers appear, opening to another village." It describes the situation where things seem impossible or all paths seem blocked, new opportunities often emerge unexpectedly. It's similar to the saying when the door closes, the window opens.

Finally, reflecting on my friend’s observation about "made in China" items, it seems likely that connector countries like Spain are contributing to the continued flow of Chinese goods into Western markets.

My children arranged our Thanksgiving vacation in Paris and London, encouraging us to do some homework on what we wanted to see there. At my son’s place, I remember spotting A Moveable Feast by Ernest Hemingway—a book about his years in Paris. Intrigued, I picked it up last weekend.

Hemingway wrote about his life in Paris in his twenties from 1921 to 1926, and I had read excerpts of it back when I was around the same age. Some passages have stayed with me ever since.

He describes how, when facing writer’s block, he would tell himself, "All you have to do is write one true sentence. Write the truest sentence that you know.” From there, he found it easier to write the next true sentence, whether it was something he knew, saw, or heard. If he strayed into ornamentation, he’d cut it away, adhering to what he called “good and severe discipline.”

This struck me as sound advice for journalists. Yet, while Hemingway was writing fiction, my experience as a journalist has shown me a different reality. Even now, I appreciate his advice—but I know it’s not always feasible in every situation.

Here's one of these moments from life I’ve been thinking about lately. My sister shared that her husband’s tumor grew worse before stabilizing with a new treatment. He told her he hoped to live at least into his 80s, so he could spend more time with their 26-year-old son. My sister commented, "He didn’t even mention me."

Perhaps he feels an urgency to pass on his legacy, to share father-son moments he missed when his son was young. Or maybe he sees his relationship with his son as unfinished, feeling he still has a role to play as a father. I wondered if a more thoughtful approach might have been saying he wished to spend more time with both his son and his wife.

A Chinese saying goes, “少年夫妻老来伴”(Shào nián fū qī, lǎo lái bàn), "Young couples become old companions." The saying emphasizes the lifelong companionship between spouses. It underscores the idea that as couples grow older, they come to rely on each other even more for companionship.

I understood my sister’s feeling of being overshadowed, but I said nothing. What would Hemingway say if he were in my position? Would he tell the truest sentence—the one that expressed both his longing and her quiet hurt -- or leave it at that?

Two days ago, I discussed the Bloomberg article “How American Tax Breaks Brought a Chinese Solar Energy Giant to Ohio.” Today, I came across another insightful piece, also from Bloomberg, “US Efforts to Contain Xi’s Push for Tech Supremacy Are Faltering.” 

This article explores the challenges the U.S. faces in curbing China’s rapid technological advancements. Despite sanctions and export controls targeting China’s advanced tech sectors, China has made substantial progress in areas like semiconductor self-sufficiency, artificial intelligence, and other critical technologies. It suggests that U.S. strategies may be falling short, as China’s tech companies continue to adapt swiftly to sanctions, expanding their influence through partnerships in emerging markets.

The article opens with a direct statement: “Since Donald Trump hit Xi Jinping’s government with punitive tariffs in 2018, his push to cut the trade deficit has snowballed into a full-scale bipartisan effort to stop China from becoming the world’s biggest economy and obtaining technology that threatens American military superiority.”

It goes on to affirm that, despite over six years of tariffs, controls, and sanctions, China is steadily positioning toward leading in the industries of the future. New research from Bloomberg Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence shows that China’s industrial policy blueprint, Made in China 2025, has largely succeeded. Of the 13 key technologies Bloomberg tracks, China has already achieved a global leadership position in five and is catching up quickly in seven others.

This means that people worldwide are increasingly using Chinese electric vehicles, browsing on Chinese smartphones, and powering their homes with Chinese solar panels. For Washington, the risk is that policies aimed at containing China could end up isolating the U.S., harming its own businesses and consumers.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, notes, “China’s technological rise will not be stymied, and might not even be slowed, by U.S. restrictions.” China's manufacturing capacity has reached historic heights, with its trade surplus in manufactured goods, as a share of global GDP, now the largest of any country since the United States after World War II.

While reading the article, a verse by the famous Chinese poet Li Bai comes to mind: 两岸猿声啼不住，轻舟已过万重山 (Liǎng àn yuán shēng tí bù zhù, qīng zhōu yǐ guò wàn chóng shān), which translates as, “The cries of monkeys on both banks cannot stop it; the light boat has already passed through countless mountains.” This verse beautifully captures the scene of fast forward moving despite adversity. Figuratively, it reflects the unstoppable progress we see in China, despite obstacles—symbolized here by the cries of monkeys along the way.

A few days ago, I met a Chinese woman at the YMCA who was seven years my senior and recently retired. I shared with her that I had stopped working at the end of 2016, stop “bending for five bushels of grain” 为五斗米折腰, wèi wǔ dǒu mǐ zhé yāo, figuratively refers to compromising one's integrity or values for a low salary. She asked, "What did you do after retirement?" Truthfully, not much—after all, the pandemic started in 2020.

Back then, I had ambitious plans, yet, surprisingly, I accomplished few items on my list and instead spent a lot of time on things I hadn’t planned for. Writing wasn’t even on my radar, as I assumed it was for those who had nothing else to do. I wanted to enrich my life with experiences worth writing about, to fill my days with action and discovery.

Of course, some unplanned activities crept in: playing games and binge-watching short videos on social media, often under the guise of “relaxation.”

Turning to some recent news, Intel has issued an ultimatum to its employees: choose severance or brace for layoffs. Once a powerhouse in semiconductors, Intel now finds itself excluded from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This day and night transformation is a story of missed opportunities and shifts in industry focus.

Consider Intel's journey alongside NVIDIA’s rise. Intel’s CPUs have always been the “brains” of computers, while NVIDIA’s GPUs were initially crafted for graphics rendering. CPUs held a must-have status, whereas GPUs, once considered optional, gained increasing relevance in specialized tasks. 

In commercial value, CPUs historically far outshined GPUs, but shifts in demand began to level the playing field. As Bitcoin mining, 3D gaming, and film production took off, NVIDIA’s GPUs surged in popularity. Intel, however, disregarded these “small patches of market,” missing the opportunity to capitalize on new markets.

The lesson learned here? Industry giants often falter not due to a lack of technical prowess but rather the opposite: their dominant strength leads them to overlook tiny signs of emerging trends, over-confident in their invincibility. For instance, Intel dismissed the potential of smartphones, neglecting that market entirely. Yet, as demand grew, the once-overlooked market expanded and once “non-mainstream” products became central, and Intel’s dominance eroded. This shift didn’t happen overnight; it was the result of gradual changes rather than sudden breakthroughs.

I wonder what Intel’s visionary founders—Gordon Moore, Robert Noyce, and Andy Grove—would think of this transformation. Michael S. Malone’s book, The Intel Trinity: How Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove Built the World's Most Important Company (2014), delves into the legacy of these pioneers. Though Intel’s CPU remains among the best globally, the question remains: can Intel reclaim its former glory?