Yanwen’s blog

A friend of mine recently asked, "How do you find time to write every day?" Honestly, writing itself isn’t the hard part—focusing is. There’s always so much to read, write about, and finish, with countless loose ends demanding attention. Without focus, I could easily let go hours without going anywhere.

Now, shifting to today’s topic: last Friday, I came across a report about tech stock sell-offs and the cooling enthusiasm following Trump's election win. The article noted that “half of the stock market’s euphoric post-Trump-election gains have vanished.” To me, this development is hardly surprising. If anything, it highlights two defining characteristics of a Trump administration: uncertainty and unpredictability.

On the surface, Trump is branded as a pro-capitalist leader, championing tax cuts, deregulation, expanding oil drilling, a withdrawal from climate agreements, and a resurgence of laissez-faire policies. However, beneath these promises lies a storm of concerns about long-term stability, policy implementation, and broader economic consequences.

Here are four key challenges that highlight the uncertainty:  

1. Tariffs and Trade Wars  The biggest elephant in the room is Trump’s tariff policy. Will we see a resurgence of trade wars? Heightened geopolitical tensions, alienation from allies, and disruptions to global trade and production loom as real possibilities. 

2. Leadership Instability   Many still recall the chaos of Trump’s first administration—frequent staff turnover, internal infighting, and cabinet appointments often driven by loyalty or campaign donations rather than qualifications. These patterns raise concerns about governance competence and undermine confidence in long-term leadership stability. A Chinese saying can well describe Trump here, 任人唯亲 (rèn rén wéi qīn) "Appointing people based on favoritism" or "Nepotism." It refers to a practice where individuals are chosen for positions based on personal relationships or loyalty rather than merit or qualifications.

3. Fiscal Responsibility  While proposed tax cuts might boost short-term profits, they also risk ballooning the national deficit if tariff revenues fail to deliver as expected. This could present a significant long-term economic challenge, one that investors and analysts are already wary of.

4. Diplomatic Unpredictability   Trump’s unconventional approach to diplomacy—like the 2018 meeting with Kim Jong Un—raises questions about what surprises might lie ahead. Will his next move destabilize international relations, or will it redefine diplomacy in ways no one anticipates?  

Ultimately, while Trump’s pro-capitalist proclamations have initially captured attention, the challenge lies in translating them into effective policies and executables. The potential for unprecedented global repercussions, coupled with governance and stability concerns, fuels an environment of caution. Investors, policymakers, and the public are left imagining a landscape dominated by uncertainty—a hallmark of the Trump administration.

Yesterday, I wrote about the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) led by Musk and Vivek. The initiative has sparked much discussion, with many questioning its feasibility and predicting failure.

However, regardless of its practicality or final outcome, there are positive aspects to this effort. Bureaucracy often grows unchecked, accumulating inefficiencies. Having someone periodically assess and trim the excess is not only prudent but necessary.

What stood out most was Musk’s declaration on his X platform: "All actions of DOGE will be posted online for maximum transparency." This commitment to openness is a refreshing change.

Musk also invited public feedback, saying, "If the public thinks we’re cutting something important or failing to cut something wasteful, just let us know." This reflects his openness to public oversight, a rare and commendable attitude.

Public supervision is a cornerstone of effective governance. It ensures governments operate lawfully, efficiently, and in line with public needs.

Musk’s commitment to transparency aligns with democratic principles, where public participation in monitoring government activities fosters accountability and continuous improvement. Whether DOGE ultimately succeeds or not, its focus on transparency and public involvement is a step in the right direction.

To end on a light note: I asked someone, “What does it mean when I say ‘我在等红灯’ (Wǒ zài děng hóng dēng)?” He said, “It means I’m waiting for the red light.” Makes no sense. Who in their right mind would wait for the red light? Actually, it means waiting for the green light!

On November 12, 2024, the world learned about Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy leading a new initiative in the Trump administration: the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE). Although not a formal executive department, DOGE functions more like an independent advisory committee.

Its mission is ambitious: to “dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies.” DOGE will operate in collaboration with the White House and the Office of Management and Budget, providing guidance and recommendations from outside the traditional government framework.

Currently, the U.S. federal government has around 440 agencies and sub-agencies, many with overlapping responsibilities. Musk aims to reduce that number to 99 while achieving over $2 trillion in savings—nearly one-third of the federal government’s annual $6.7 trillion budget.

This bold plan brings to mind a phrase I often heard in my younger years: 精兵简政 (jīng bīng jiǎn zhèng), which translates to "streamlining the military and simplifying administration." Coined during China’s early revolutionary period in 1941, the phrase emphasized reducing excess personnel and bureaucracy to improve efficiency and effectiveness in governance and military operations.

With that level of savings, the reforms may include the elimination of entire departments, such as the Department of Education. However, such level of changes require Congressional approval. The line of accountability runs through Congress. While Trump could implement certain minor reforms across the executive branch, enacting broader structural changes would require legislation granting him presidential reorganization authority.

Historically, the 2008 Presidential Directives on reorganization authority set clear limits:

- Presidential reorganization plans could not create or abolish entire departments.  

- Plans must address only one logically consistent subject matter.  

- The president could submit no more than one plan every 30 days and had to include a clear statement of projected economic savings.  

Trump holds a significant advantage in the current political landscape at least for the first two years, with Republicans holding a majority in both the Senate and the House. However, the Senate majority is slim, making it challenging to push through contentious changes. Achieving such transformational change will require considerable political capital and maneuvering.

By the way, it is reported that China had done the same back in 1982 when Deng Xiaoping established the Commission for Economic Reform, removing 39 out of 100 departments in the State Council, cutting bureaucrats from 50,000 to 30,000 in 18 months, in the DOGgEd spirit of 精兵简政.

Ultimately, Trump’s bold vision, guided by Musk and Vivek, represents an ambitious attempt to overhaul the bloated federal government. However, turning this vision into reality will require getting through numerous political hurdles, securing Congressional approval, and balancing the promise of efficiency with the challenges of execution. Whether this marks a transformative era or sparks a fresh wave of controversy and in-house fights remains to be seen. One thing is certain: grab your popcorn—there’s plenty of drama ahead.

On November 12, 2024, Bloomberg reported that President-elect Donald Trump has selected a new National Security Advisor who identifies China as the primary threat to U.S. interests. This choice aligns with Trump’s broader strategy of adopting a more confrontational stance toward China.

In addition, Trump has been assembling a team known for their hardline positions on China. Notably, Senator Marco Rubio has been named Secretary of State, and Representative Mike Waltz has been chosen for a key defense role. Both figures are unapologetically hostile toward China, frequently targeting its policies on issues such as Xinjiang and Taiwan, areas where they have actively pushed for U.S. intervention.

Furthermore, John Ratcliffe has been named CIA Director, further reinforcing this trajectory. Ratcliffe is expected to continue prioritizing China as a focal point for U.S. intelligence operations, consistent with the administration’s overarching strategy.

These appointments indicate a deliberate move toward a more assertive and potentially antagonistic U.S. approach to China, heightening the risk of escalating tensions between the two nations.

On Chinese social media, the announcement of this hawkish lineup has sparked widespread concern. Many have expressed fears of intensifying conflict, even the heightened possibility of wars, describing the mood as one of deep unease—pitch dark and profoundly pessimistic. Even my ESL student can see this and becomes worried for China. 

There is an ironic twist, however: many Chinese had previously viewed Trump as the more peaceful option, believing he would focus on domestic issues like tariffs rather than foreign intervention. Little had they anticipated such a hostile buildup.

This situation calls to mind a famous line from a poem by Mao Zedong: "敌军围困万千重，我自岿然不动" (Dí jūn wéi kùn wàn qiān chóng, wǒ zì kuī rán bú dòng), which means: "Surrounded by enemy troops in countless layers, we stand firm, unwavering." Originally written during the Long March, these words encapsulate a spirit of resilience that echoes in China’s attitude today—one of strategic calm and steadfast resolve amid extreme external pressures and provocations.

Mao’s words resonate with both historical strength and modern diplomatic wisdom. They remind us that true power is not found in confrontation and aggression but in resilience, resolve, and strategic patience. In the face of mounting challenges, steadfastness remains the most reliable path to long-term peace, stability, and enduring strength.

Two weeks before the U.S. election, I came across an article by Scott Foster, published on 10/18/2024, discussing Apple’s new R&D center in Shenzhen.

Amid the persistent calls for decoupling from China—amplified particularly during Trump’s tenure—many companies face mounting pressure to leave China. Apple, however, stands out as an exception. Its strategy of maintaining and even deepening its ties with China reflects a rare form of pragmatism. This decision acknowledges an economic reality that many overlook: for companies like Apple, fully decoupling from China is nearly impossible due to its vast market and the intricate interconnections of its ecosystem. Apple's move carries significant implications on multiple levels:

First, Apple acknowledges China’s pivotal role not only as a current revenue powerhouse but also as a cornerstone for long-term growth.

With its expanding middle class and rapid technological advancements, China remains critical to Apple’s future. This recognition underscores Apple's awareness that abandoning such a crucial market would be both impractical and detrimental to its global ambitions.

Second, Apple demonstrates a focus on long-term stability over short-term political pressures.

By deepening its engagement in China, Apple positions itself to weather the political cycles in the U.S., whether driven by Trump or any future administration. This strategy minimizes its vulnerability to the shifting tides of U.S.-China relations, emphasizing resilience over reaction.

Third, Apple understands the core of its identity as a technology company.

Staying at the forefront of innovation is vital for Apple’s survival, and the Shenzhen R&D center signals its commitment to leveraging China's vast talent pool. This move ensures access to cutting-edge expertise essential for developing advanced technologies like AI, AR/VR, and 5G. Additionally, local R&D enables Apple to tailor its products to Chinese consumer preferences—an advantage that often shapes global trends.

Fourth, Apple’s decision reflects a nuanced understanding of geopolitics.

Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China are unlikely to disappear, regardless of who is in power. By strengthening its presence in China, Apple safeguards its operations against prolonged uncertainty and potential disruptions, ensuring continuity amid a volatile global landscape.

Finally, Apple reaffirms its identity as a global brand leader, not just a U.S. company.

This move highlights Apple’s broader vision to remain dominant on the world stage. The Shenzhen R&D center reinforces its commitment to China, a critical hub of global innovation, while signaling to shareholders and consumers that Apple prioritizes global competitiveness. This strategic positioning ensures that Apple stays ahead in an increasingly interconnected and competitive world.

A Chinese saying goes, "识时务者为俊杰" (Shí shí wù zhě wéi jùn jié), meaning, "A wise person knows how to adapt to the times." This perfectly encapsulates Apple’s pragmatic and forward-thinking approach to navigating the complexities of the U.S.-China relationship. By deepening its ties with China despite external pressures, Apple demonstrates a strategic understanding of the global landscape and a steadfast commitment to long-term success. In a world filled with uncertainty and anxiety, Apple's actions remind us of the importance of adhering to core values and long-term vision, which serve as guiding principles through ever-changing times.