Yanwen’s blog

As I was preparing for a meeting with one of my Korean students on Tuesday, I thought of recommending a book to her: How Confidence Works: The New Science of Self-Belief by Ian Robertson (2021). The author, a neuroscientist, clinical psychologist, and Professor of Psychology, offers a compelling exploration of the mechanics of confidence.

I’d like to share some ideas about this. Confidence is pivotal to success. Confidence empowers us to take risks, make decisions, and pursue goals with determination. I remember back in 2012 when my son planned to quit his job and started his own company, he said, “I have some savings and if I need money I can always find a job.” That’s confidence.

Confidence also influences how others perceive you, often leading to greater opportunities and support from others. In essence, confidence can be the key that unlocks the door to many great things in life.

This book functions as a practical guide, grounded in social science. It draws on numerous research findings and academic analyses to unravel the mechanisms of confidence. Through a wealth of real-life stories and research data, the author substantiates the logic behind the operation of confidence.

First, the book emphasizes that confidence can be cultivated through learning and practice. As Robertson notes, "Confidence, then, is the words you say to yourself, in part. And given that we can choose what we say to ourselves, we can, to some extent, control our level of confidence."

Second, Robertson dissects the concept of confidence into two core components: (1) Efficacy—the belief that you possess the ability to achieve a desired result, known as "efficacy expectation"; and (2) Outcome Expectation—the belief that taking action will lead to the anticipated change. Confidence, therefore, arises from the combination of these two beliefs: the belief that you can do it and the belief that your efforts will yield the desired outcome. It is only when we trust in our ability to build a bridge to our goal and believe that the bridge will indeed lead us there that confidence is born.

Third, a significant source of confidence is a sense of control, which stems from overcoming challenges. Confidence is built through continuous effort and practice.

Fourth, the author highlights two key elements essential for fostering confidence: attention and a specific goal. The ability to focus on a specific, immediate goal is a crucial prerequisite for confidence. For example, during a competition, confidence may elude you if you are preoccupied with how others perceive you, if you lack a specific goal, or if the goal is too distant or abstract. True confidence emerges when your attention is fully directed at the immediate and specific objective.

A Chinese poem goes like this “自信人生二百年，会当水击三千里” (Zìxìn rénshēng èr bǎi nián, huì dāng shuǐ jī sān qiān lǐ), meaning: with confidence, one can live for two hundred years and ride the waves for three thousand miles." It emphasizes the power of confidence in achieving the unthinkable and overcoming challenges.

Finally, if you aspire to be richer, healthier, smarter, more energetic, and happier, confidence is the key.

Last Saturday, we drove to Nyack, a small village with a population of just over 7,000 in upstate New York. We spent the day exploring the area and had lunch at a Himalayan Tibetan Momo restaurant—our first time trying this cuisine. During our meal, we engaged in a brief conversation with the restaurant owner, who came to the United States in 2009.

This short day trip felt like a refreshing break from our otherwise monotonous daily routine. The experience, being a departure from our usual activities, brought in a sense of freshness and comparison.

The trip also brought to mind Claudia Hammond's book Time Warped: Unlocking the Mysteries of Time Perception and the questions it raises: Why does life seem to speed up as we age? Time appears to accelerate as we grow older because, with the passage of years, we encounter fewer and fewer new experiences—unless we consciously seek them out, like our day trip to Nyack.

For many, a routine life often feels like this: looking back over the past five years, it might seem as though nothing memorable happened beyond the daily cycle of work, home, meals, and sleep. Days, months, and years blur together, leaving little to remember. Naturally, it feels as if time is flying by, devoid of novelty, surprise, and excitement.

One way to slow down time is by embracing new experiences and creating our own surprises. The more varied and unique our experiences, the more time seems to stretch out and slow down.

A Chinese saying, 行万里路，读万卷书 (Xíng wàn lǐ lù, dú wàn juǎn shū), meaning: "Travel ten thousand miles, read ten thousand books." This saying emphasizes the value of new experiences and knowledge in enriching one's life and slowing down the perception of time. Each journey taken and each book read brings with it a sense of wonder and novelty, making life more memorable and fulfilling.

Finally, it is about creating and retaining the richness and freshness of our experience. By seeking out new experiences and stepping off the beaten path, we can add depth, surprises and novelty to our days and savor the moments that might otherwise slip away unnoticed. After all, life is as full as we make it, and time is only as fleeting as we allow it to be.

On August 10th, I shared some reflections on Morgan Housel's book, Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes. There's another chapter I find particularly compelling, titled "It's Supposed to Be Hard," which delves into the true nature of achievement and success. The notion that anything worth pursuing involves a certain degree of difficulty or pain is a sentiment that resonates deeply, especially with those who have faced significant challenges in their personal or professional lives, and also among the first generation of immigrants.

"Everything worth pursuing comes with a little pain. The trick is not minding that it hurts. ... Hacks are appealing because they look like paths to prizes without the effort. But in the real world, those rarely exist."

This passage encapsulates the reality of achievement: it demands significant effort, sacrifice, and perseverance. It's a reminder that success is something to be earned, not handed out, and that no shortcuts can lead to lasting fulfillment or genuine accomplishment.

The idea that "the trick is not minding that it hurts" suggests a mindset rooted in acceptance and resilience. By recognizing that pain, stress, hardship, and uncertainty are inherent parts of the journey, we can maintain our focus on our goals rather than becoming discouraged by inevitable obstacles.

Charles Munger once remarked, "The safest way to try to get what you want is to try to deserve what you want. It's such a simple idea. It's the golden rule. You want to deliver to the world what you would buy if you were on the other end."

Munger's quote underscores the importance of earning what you desire through hard work and integrity. This "golden rule" approach highlights the significance of reciprocity and ethical conduct in the pursuit of meaningful goals.

Housel also addresses the hidden costs of success. The "price" isn't always monetary. More often, it's paid through intangible challenges—stress, risk, uncertainty, and dealing with difficult people or situations. These are the less glamorous, yet very real, aspects of striving for significant goals.

A Chinese saying goes, 成人不自在，自在不成人 (Chéng rén bù zìzài, zìzài bù chéng rén), meaning: To achieve greatness, you have to break from the comfortable zone; to stay in your comfort zone you can’t achieve greatness. The saying emphasizes the idea that personal growth and success often require enduring discomfort and challenges, while seeking comfort alone may prevent one from reaching their full potential.

Finally, Housel offers a realistic perspective on what it truly takes to achieve worthwhile goals. He emphasizes that success is not about finding shortcuts or avoiding difficulties, but about embracing hard work, integrity, and resilience as essential elements of the road to success. Same applies for all immigrants who come here for an American dream.

Last Monday, I read a Bloomberg article titled "Mercedes Gets Nod to Test High-Level Self-Driving in Beijing." Mercedes-Benz AG announced that it "has become the first international auto brand permitted to test advanced autonomous driving in Beijing at a time when domestic and global carmakers are racing to develop the technology."

This news highlights China's strategic yet cautious approach to opening its autonomous driving market to international brands, which carries significant implications for the global auto industry and the future of mobility.

A Chinese saying comes to mind: 好风凭借力，送我上青云 (hǎo fēng píng jiè lì, sòng wǒ shàng qīng yún), meaning "With the help of a favorable wind, I can soar to the blue skies." This metaphorically expresses the idea of leveraging favorable circumstances or external assistance to reach new heights. In this context, China is using the "favorable wind" of foreign technological expertise to propel its advancements in the auto industry.

First, allowing international companies like Tesla, GM, and Mercedes-Benz to test autonomous vehicles in China suggests that the country is keen on accelerating technological advancements by leveraging global expertise. The influx of data from these trials in diverse and complex urban environments like Beijing and Shanghai will undoubtedly benefit the development of autonomous driving technologies worldwide.

Second, by permitting international brands to conduct trials under agreed-upon conditions, China ensures that it can monitor and regulate the integration of these technologies while safeguarding its interests.

Third, as international and domestic companies race to develop these technologies, the auto industry's landscape is likely to see a shift, with autonomous driving becoming a key selling point for consumers.

Fourth, China's decisions on which companies can test and develop technologies within its borders will likely have far-reaching consequences for the global market.

Finally, the writers of this news piece seem to have a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical and economic implications of China’s decision. They are aware of the broader impact on global technology development and intense market competition. They also appreciate the significance of data in advancing autonomous driving technology, highlighting the potential benefits for the industry.

In the ever-evolving landscape of global technology, China’s approach to autonomous driving serves as an example in strategic collaboration. By opening its doors to international auto giants, China is not merely participating in the race for innovation; it is also shaping the course and the future market. 

As the propitious winds of global cooperation propel the country toward new heights, China’s careful balancing of progress and protection demonstrates a keen understanding of the intricate dynamics at play. In this new era of mobility, China is poised to soar at the forefront of this transformation when it harnesses the power of partnership to drive the future of the global auto industry.

It's been a week since we came to live at my son's place in Brooklyn on 8/2. I picked up a book that he's been reading, Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes by Morgan Housel.

There are some parts that offer deep insights into the complex relationship between wealth, happiness, and expectations.

"People gauge their well-being relative to those around them, and luxuries become necessities in a remarkably short period of time when the people around you become better off."

Here the author touches on the psychological phenomenon of relative deprivation, where people measure their satisfaction not against their own past experiences or absolute standards, but in comparison to others around them. This can create a never-ending cycle where contentment is always just out of reach, pushing people to constantly strive for more, not out of need, but because of the perceived standard set by those around them. 

Housel is critical about modern economy when he says, "Today's economy is good at generating three things: wealth, the ability to show off wealth, and great envy for other people's wealth." 

That is, the modern economy focuses on material success and the shallow appearance of that success. The wealthy appearance serves to foster a culture of comparison, envy and discontent. 

Social media and other platforms have helped blowing up this culture by making it easier than ever to show off wealth and success, leading to a pervasive sense of inadequacy for those who feel they can’t keep up. 

This cycle of showing off and envying wealth can detract from the true sources of happiness, such as meaningful relationships, spiritual values, and personal fulfillment, as people become shallow material chasers and more focused on what they lack rather than what they have.

I remember my childhood, when abundance was scarce, but we were all in the same boat. Despite the simplicity of those times, we found joy and content in creating our own toys.

Because of today's superficial culture of comparison and envy in America, "We might have higher incomes, more wealth, and bigger homes--but it's all so quickly smothered by inflated expectations."

This reminds me of the concept of the hedonic treadmill, where people quickly adapt to improvements in their material conditions, leading to ever-increasing expectations that are difficult to satisfy. As incomes rise and people acquire more, the joy these gains initially bring tends to diminish over time, replaced by a new desire for even more. 

The constant pursuit of greater wealth and better things can lead to a paradox where, despite having more than before, people feel less happy now than before. Another paradox in American culture, which prides itself on individualism, is that personal happiness often relies on the approval and support of others.

Finally, here's Charlie Munger’s quote on happiness and expectations: "The first rule of a happy life is low expectations. If you have unrealistic expectations you're going to be miserable your whole life. You want to have reasonable expectations and take life's results, good and bad, as they happen with a certain amount of stoicism."

Munger’s advice is a call to embrace stoicism and moderation in our desires. By setting reasonable expectations, we protect ourselves from the disappointment that often accompanies unmet aspirations. According to Munger, happiness is less about achieving certain outcomes and more about managing our expectations and reactions to the inevitable ups and downs of life. 

Munger's philosophy of life and happiness aligns with the broader themes in Housel’s work, underscoring the idea that happiness is more about mindset than material success, more about values and the spirits inside us than things external.